What Is the Temecula Housing Market Doing? Fall 2026 Update for Temecula, Murrieta and Menifee

What is the Temecula housing market doing right now?

Short version: the Temecula housing market is steady. Prices are basically flat from a year ago, homes are selling a little faster, and more of them sold this August than last August. If you want the bigger picture on living here, the schools, the wineries and the traffic, start with our Temecula city guide. This page is just the numbers, and we refresh it every quarter.

Here is the scoreboard for Temecula, California, next to its two neighbors, Murrieta and Menifee. Every figure comes from Redfin's city housing market pages, which are built from MLS and public records data. These are real sale prices, not online estimates.

Sources: Redfin housing market pages for Temecula, Murrieta and Menifee, 3 months ending August 2026, read September 29, 2026. Median prices are rounded to $5,000. The median covers all home types, so a month with more condos or more big houses can move it without any single home changing value.

Are home prices dropping in Temecula?

No, not on the numbers we have. Temecula's median sale price was up 0.6% year over year for the 3 months ending August 2026, per Redfin. That is flat, not a drop and not a boom.

Now, here is where it gets more honest. The price per square foot tells a slightly softer story. Redfin puts Temecula's median sale price per square foot at $358, down 1.5% from a year earlier. So the typical home that sold was a little bigger, and buyers paid a little less for each foot of it. And 38.0% of Temecula homes had a price drop before they sold, which tells you a lot of sellers started too high.

The county picture lines up. The California Association of REALTORS (C.A.R.) reported Riverside County's August 2026 median price for existing single-family homes at about $635,000, up 1.3% from August 2025 but down 2.5% from July 2026 (C.A.R., September 16, 2026). One month down after a summer high is normal seasonal movement, right? One month is not a trend.

How do the Murrieta and Menifee housing markets compare?

Same valley, three different price points. The Murrieta housing market is the one that cooled a little this quarter: the median sale price slipped 2.0% to about $655,000, days on market went from 45 to 47, and Redfin's price per square foot for Murrieta fell 6.2% to $312 (Redfin, 3 months ending August 2026). Sales still went up, 343 homes in August against 318 a year earlier. Our Murrieta city guide covers the rest of the picture.

The Menifee housing market moved the other way on speed. Menifee's median sale price held at about $575,000, up 0.3%, but median days on market dropped from 54 to 40, and 453 homes sold in August, the most of the three cities (Redfin, 3 months ending August 2026). Full disclosure, I live in Menifee, and the price gap is the reason most people call us about it. See the Menifee city guide for the pros and cons.

The gaps between the three cities, on the same Redfin median sale price for the same 3 months:

• Temecula to Murrieta: about $80,000
• Murrieta to Menifee: about $80,000
• Temecula to Menifee: about $160,000

What are mortgage rates doing, and what does 7% mean for a payment?

Rates went the wrong way for buyers this month. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% the week of October 1, 2026, up from 7.03% the week before and from 6.34% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60% (Freddie Mac, October 1, 2026). For context, C.A.R. says the 30-year rate averaged 6.67% across August, then climbed past 7% in the second week of September.

So that is the headline. What it means is a bigger monthly payment on the same house. Here is the principal and interest on a $600,000, 30-year fixed loan at each rate. This is plain loan math, before property tax, insurance, HOA or Mello-Roos, and it is not a quote from a lender.

That is about $375 a month more than the same loan a year ago. Your actual rate depends on your credit, your down payment and the loan type, so get a real quote. And if property taxes are part of your budget, our Riverside County property tax guide walks through the rest of the monthly bill.

Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market in Temecula?

Somewhere in the middle, and it depends on the house. Redfin scores Temecula 72 out of 100 on its Compete Score, "very competitive", with homes getting about 2 offers on average over the 3 months ending August 2026. Murrieta scores 64 and Menifee 66, both "somewhat competitive" (Redfin, September 2026).

Supply is the other half. Redfin's city pages do not publish months of supply, so we use C.A.R.'s Unsold Inventory Index for the county. That index is how many months it would take to sell every listing at the current pace.

Source: C.A.R. August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026. Prices rounded to $5,000.

Riverside County has a bit more supply than the state and a bit less than a year ago. Homes are still selling close to asking. So the well-priced house in a good spot still moves, and the overpriced one sits and takes a cut.

What does this market mean if you are buying?

I am not going to tell you to buy now or wait. Nobody knows where rates go next month. Here is what the numbers above say, and you make the call.

• You have some room to negotiate on stale listings. Between 31% and 38% of homes in the three cities had a price drop before selling (Redfin, 3 months ending August 2026). A home that has sat past the local median of 40 to 47 days is a different conversation than one that just hit the market.
• The good ones still go near asking. The sale-to-list ratio was 99.7% in all three cities, and roughly 4 in 10 homes sold above list. Do not assume every listing is soft.
• Run the payment, not just the price. At 7.28%, the rate moves your monthly number as much as a price cut does. Get pre-approved so you know your real rate before you shop.
• Look at all three cities. About $160,000 separates the Temecula and Menifee medians. What you give up for that gap is covered in the city guides.

What does this market mean if you are selling?

Now for sellers, I will be brutally honest: price is everything in this market. With 38.0% of Temecula homes taking a price drop before they sold, the most common mistake right now is listing high and chasing the market down.

• Price from your street, not the city median. The median is a citywide middle. Your home's value comes from recent sales of similar homes near you.
• Plan for a few weeks on market. The median was 40 days in Temecula and Menifee and 47 in Murrieta. Some homes go faster, some slower.
• Buyers are payment shoppers. A buyer at 7% is watching every dollar a month. Concessions like a rate buydown are one tool sellers use; talk it through with your agent and a lender.
• Know your number before you list. A net sheet shows what you walk away with after commission, escrow, title and payoff.

None of that is a prediction. It is what the last 3 months looked like, so you can plan with real numbers.

How will we track the Temecula housing market each quarter?

This page is a living update. Every quarter we pull the same measures from the same sources and replace the numbers here, so you can compare apples to apples. The next refresh uses the 3 months ending November 2026.

1. Redfin city housing market pages for Temecula, Murrieta and Menifee: median sale price (3 months), year-over-year change, median days on market, homes sold, sale-to-list, homes above list and price drops.
2. C.A.R. monthly home sales and price report: Riverside County median price, unsold inventory index and days on market.
3. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: the 30-year fixed average for the latest week.